Ever since the draw for the Champions League knockout stages was made in December, Arsenal have been preparing themselves for yet another crack at Bayern Munich and to a large degree, they were approaching the first leg in Germany in a positive frame of mind having maintained their position in the top four of the Premier League table and breezing through to the last 16 of the FA Cup. However, two setbacks - one personal and one team-related - has really left Munich has clear favourites with most football betting firms to establish a lead ahead of the return fixture in North London.
Ahead of Arsenal's game with Watford on January 31, Shkodran Mustafi had spoken of his desire to go through the entire campaign without losing in a Gunners shirt after not suffering a defeat in 22 starts but 48 hours after speaking about the streak, it inevitably came to an end as the Hornets ran out 2-1 victors at the Emirates Stadium. It was a setback which led to manager Arsene Wenger questioning the mentality of his team when they had the opportunity to continue to pursue league leaders Chelsea. He attempted to explain that there was not a problem with Arsenal's physical power - an argument where he is probably correct - but falling two goals behind within the opening 15 minutes of a game against a team who were out of form suggested that his players approached the fixture in the wrong frame of mind.
While Arsenal are still mathematically active in the title race and still hold the edge when it comes to trying to earn a place in the top four of the standings, the defeat to Watford has placed more importance on their tie with Bayern and Wenger will know that it is effectively sink or swim time as far as their ambitions of achieving one of their top two targets are concerned. They also have a record of six successive failed attempts to progress past the second round of the Champions League hanging over their heads, a run which will get tougher to break the more it is prolonged.
Ahead of the last-16 draw, their familiarity with Bayern over recent years had become a running joke, but it is no laughing matter for the English giants who are facing Bayern for the fourth time in five years. Every football supporter saviours the big European nights but Arsenal have generally come up short when playing against the five-time winners of the competition. Last season, they did run out 2-0 winners in their home fixture, but they succumbed tamely at the Allianz Arena as they lost out 5-1, and you have to question whether they can turn things around on their next visit to the ground.
To their credit, Arsenal did come through this year's group stages unbeaten, and with a draw at the Parc des Princes against Paris Saint-Germain, but in general terms, Wenger does not get the best out of his players when they play a team who are one of the favourites for the competition on their travels. Since 2013, they have come up short against the likes of Bayern, Barcelona, Borussia Dortmund and Napoli when playing away from home and even with Theo Walcott, Alexis Sanchez and Olivier Giroud in fine goalscoring form, it is not enough to compensate for their lack of steel at the back.
Bayern only finished in second place to Atletico Madrid during the group stages but the difference maker - a 3-2 defeat to Russian side Rostov - should not influence this tie. In a perfect world, they would have liked to have hosted Arsenal in the second leg but when you have not lost at home in 12 matches in all competitions, possess the best defence and attack in domestic action and have quality in all areas of the pitch, do they really have anything to worry about?
The biggest threat will come from Robert Lewandowski, who has scored 22 times in 26 appearances in all competitions, but he will be assisted by the likes of Thomas Muller, Franck Ribery and Arjen Robben and it is hard to look at anything but Bayern opening up a sizeable first-leg lead when the two teams go head to head on February 15.
