There were times during England's 1-0 defeat to Germany where they outplayed a team who are still regarded as world champions and reached the semi-finals of Euro 2016 during the summer. England were dominant for much of the opening 45 minutes with Michael Keane, Adam Lallana and Dele Alli all squandering opportunities that they would have expected to convert and they were somewhat inevitably made to pay when Lukas Podolski's scored the perfect farewell goal on the international scene. That said, the disappointment in Dortmund would have done little to alter the England v Lithuania World Cup qualifiers betting odds, meaning that the opportunity is there to capitalise on what could be a goal rush for the Three Lions.
You have to go all the way back to September 2015 - a period of 21 matches - to find the last time England netted more than three goals in an international fixture, and even then it came against minnows San Marino. Coincidentally, the last time England scored more than three goals against a team with some credibility came in March of that year when they hit four versus Lithuania at Wembley. That record highlights that England were solid, not spectacular, during the final 15 months of Roy Hodgson's reign - and since the changes in the dugout involving Sam Allardyce and Southgate - but nothing but optimism could be taken from an encouraging performance in the west of Germany and Lithuania could feel the brunt of what appears to be a newly-discovered freedom under Southgate's watch.
It goes without saying that Germany possess more high-quality defenders than Lithuania, but the visitors to Wembley Stadium on Sunday will more than likely "park the bus" in the hope of achieving a low-scoring draw. It is a predictable approach from a nation which has shipped four goals away in Slovakia and three in the Czech Republic in their last two games, but while it leaves Southgate and his players in a position where they are effectively under pressure to deliver an end product, Lithuania's most recent results indicate that there should be chances aplenty in North London.
It remains to be seen how Southgate will approach the game but with Raheem Sterling and Ross Barkley both unused substitutes against Germany, both could start, with Barkley potentially featuring in the centre of midfield with England having to place less emphasis on defence. Another player not to feature in Dortmund was the recalled Jermain Defoe and the Sunderland striker fits the criteria for the kind of striker which England require when a team pack the defence. Jamie Vardy and Marcus Rashford are more suited to stretching a game but with four or five Lithuanians likely to be placed strategically on their own 18-yard line, it is difficult to justify starting either player.
When considering which bets to have at the weekend, you may stumble across Lithuania's goalless draw with Poland in a friendly before the start of Euro 2016, but do not be fooled into thinking that Poland were at full strength. They still included some of their key men, but goal machine Robert Lewandowski was left on the bench. That scoreline should be regarded as an anomaly in what has been a largely abysmal run from Lithuania who have only won three times in 21 outings, with their only away win came in San Marino. Their most credible result of the last two years is a 1-1 draw away in Scotland.
Betting on an England victory - one which is almost a certainly - will give you very little value, so take the approach where you are looking at the Three Lions scoring a number of goals and achieving a corner count which should be in double figures. With the likes of Kyle Walker and Sterling attacking down the right, Bertrand and Lallana making headway down the left and potentially Barkley and Alli in a more central position, England cannot do anything other than create a bagful of chances on Sunday and if Defoe is there to take advantage, expect the 34-year-old - and the team as a whole - to cash in.
