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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 50.89%. A win for Adelaide United had a probability of 27.39% and a draw had a probability of 21.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.59%) and 0-2 (6.56%). The likeliest Adelaide United win was 2-1 (6.62%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.34%). The actual scoreline of 6-0 was predicted with a 0% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Adelaide United | Draw | Melbourne City |
27.39% ( 0.98) | 21.72% ( 0.53) | 50.89% ( -1.52) |
| Both teams to score 65.41% ( -1.08) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 66.17% ( -1.79) | 33.83% ( 1.79) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 44.32% ( -2.06) | 55.67% ( 2.06) |
| Adelaide United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.76% ( -0.29) | 24.23% ( 0.29) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.41% ( -0.41) | 58.58% ( 0.41) |
| Melbourne City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.33% ( -1.08) | 13.67% ( 1.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 59.13% ( -2.2) | 40.87% ( 2.2) |
| Score Analysis |
| Adelaide United | Draw | Melbourne City |
| 2-1 @ 6.62% ( 0.24) 1-0 @ 4.7% ( 0.39)2-0 @ 3.33% ( 0.25)3-1 @ 3.13% ( 0.09)3-2 @ 3.11% ( -0.04)3-0 @ 1.57% ( 0.11)4-1 @ 1.11% ( 0.02)4-2 @ 1.1% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.72% Total : 27.39% | 1-1 @ 9.34% ( 0.42) 2-2 @ 6.59% ( -0.02)0-0 @ 3.31% ( 0.3)3-3 @ 2.07% ( -0.11)Other @ 0.41% Total : 21.72% | 1-2 @ 9.3% ( 0.04) 0-1 @ 6.59% ( 0.35)0-2 @ 6.56% ( 0.09)1-3 @ 6.17% ( -0.23)2-3 @ 4.37% ( -0.2)0-3 @ 4.35% ( -0.12)1-4 @ 3.07% ( -0.25)2-4 @ 2.18% ( -0.19)0-4 @ 2.17% ( -0.15)1-5 @ 1.22% ( -0.15)3-4 @ 1.03% ( -0.1)Other @ 3.9% Total : 50.89% |
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