Atletico have won five of the last six La Liga meetings between these two sides, but Alaves did record a 1-0 victory in the corresponding contest during the 2021-22 campaign.
Alaves will certainly be the fresher of the two teams for this match, but we are expecting Atletico to navigate their way to an important three points on Sunday evening.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 40.21%. A win for Alaves had a probability of 31.87% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.24%) and 0-2 (7.58%). The likeliest Alaves win was 1-0 (10.42%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.1%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood.
0.03) 
-0.12) 
