Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bastia win with a probability of 45.78%. A draw had a probability of 27.6% and a win for Troyes had a probability of 26.66%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bastia win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.03%) and 2-1 (8.7%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.85%), while for a Troyes win it was 0-1 (9.49%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bastia would win this match.
-0.08) 
0.02) 
