Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Huesca win with a probability of 46.91%. A draw had a probability of 28.5% and a win for Ponferradina had a probability of 24.61%.
The most likely scoreline for a Huesca win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.77%) and 2-1 (8.4%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.88%), while for a Ponferradina win it was 0-1 (9.88%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.9% likelihood.
-0.43) 
0.08) 
