Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Internacional win with a probability of 41.35%. A win for Gremio had a probability of 31.13% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Internacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.45%) and 2-0 (7.74%). The likeliest Gremio win was 0-1 (9.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.97%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Internacional would win this match.
0.22) 
-0.31) 
