Home advantage has the potential to make a difference in this fixture, particularly when AZ are juggling other commitments. Nevertheless, the visitors have been free-scoring in recent games and they have the capabilities to make this a comfortable afternoon's work.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 61.71%. A draw had a probability of 22.3% and a win for RKC Waalwijk had a probability of 16.03%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.95%) and 1-2 (9.68%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.54%), while for a RKC Waalwijk win it was 1-0 (5.74%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-3 win for AZ Alkmaar in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for AZ Alkmaar.
0.36) 
-0.01) 
