Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Pauli win with a probability of 55.4%. A draw had a probability of 22.7% and a win for Greuther Furth had a probability of 21.93%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Pauli win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.87%) and 2-0 (9.13%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.66%), while for a Greuther Furth win it was 1-2 (5.76%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that St Pauli would win this match.
-0.7) 
0.24) 
