Gambia
1 - 1
Mali

Barrow (90' pen.)
Marreh (24'), Badamosi (90+4')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Kone (79' pen.)
Coulibaly (20'), Djenepo (40'), Haidara (43')

Preview

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Africa Cup of Nations clash between Gambia and Mali, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

We expect both sides to take the game to each other from start to finish as victory almost certainly secures their place in the knockout stages. The Malians boast a significantly superior and more-experienced squad and we are tipping them to maintain their perfect start to the tournament. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mali win with a probability of 41.6%. A win for Gambia had a probability of 31.7% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mali win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.65%) and 0-2 (7.49%). The likeliest Gambia win was 1-0 (9.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.68%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.7% likelihood.

Result
Gambia	Draw	Mali
31.7%	26.7%	41.6%

Both teams to score 51%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

46.12%

53.88%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

24.66%

75.34%

Gambia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.51%

31.49%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.12%

67.88%

Mali Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.44%

25.56%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

39.57%

60.42%

Score Analysis

Gambia 31.7%

Mali 41.59%

Draw 26.7%

Gambia	Draw	Mali
1-0 @ 9.3% 2-1 @ 7.33% 2-0 @ 5.37% 3-1 @ 2.82% 3-0 @ 2.07% 3-2 @ 1.93% Other @ 2.88% Total : 31.7%	1-1 @ 12.68% 0-0 @ 8.05% 2-2 @ 5% Other @ 0.97% Total : 26.7%	0-1 @ 10.97% 1-2 @ 8.65% 0-2 @ 7.49% 1-3 @ 3.94% 0-3 @ 3.41% 2-3 @ 2.27% 1-4 @ 1.34% 0-4 @ 1.16% Other @ 2.35% Total : 41.59%