In what could be the Bundesliga title race's defining match, champions Bayer Leverkusen will host leaders Bayern Munich on Saturday at BayArena.
Leverkusen were held to a 0-0 draw by Wolfsburg on February 8 and are second with 46 points, while the Bavarians moved eight points ahead of their hosts following their 3-0 victory against Werder Bremen on February 7.
Match preview
The champions were prevented from scoring for the first time in 18 games by Wolfsburg, though Nordi Mukiele squandered a golden opportunity in front of goal in the 22nd minute, somehow missing after a corner delivery despite there being no goalkeeper to block his effort from yards out.
While it is difficult to be overly critical of Xabi Alonso's team this season considering they are in the semi-final of the DFB-Pokal, through to the Champions League round of 16 and are second in the top flight, they are on track to accumulate 78 points, 12 fewer than they did in 2023-24.
Alonso's side scored 17 goals in their previous six Bundesliga fixtures, though they have only kept three clean sheets in their last 12 league outings.
Die Schwarzroten have already played Bayern twice this campaign, drawing 1-1 in the league on September 28 and beating them 1-0 in the DFB-Pokal on December 3, although they hugely benefitted from Manuel Neuer's 17th-minute red card during that victory.
Leverkusen's draw against Wolfsburg extended their undefeated streak to five matches – winning three times in that period – and they have triumphed in 14 of their last 17 games.
The hosts are unbeaten at home in 16 outings and have won each of their past 10 fixtures at BayArena, scoring three goals in three of their last four.
Bayern come into the clash having comfortably brushed aside Werder Bremen, with the Bavarians limiting their opponents to just 0.13 xG and two shots in total while producing over four xG themselves.
Vincent Kompany's side have now scored three or more goals on 19 occasions in 2024-25, and their return of 65 goals in the Bundesliga means they are on track to score 105 times in the league, a tally they have only bettered twice since 1905-06.
The visitors beat Celtic 2-1 on Wednesday in the first leg of their Champions League round of 16 playoff but were arguably fortunate to escape Celtic Park with a lead given the Scottish champions looked especially threatening during counter-attacks.
Bayern have struggled defensively in recent weeks considering they have conceded 11 goals in their last seven outings, more than they had in their previous 15.
To their credit, the Bavarians have won their past five games, as well as nine of their last 10 in all competitions.
Kompany's side have been somewhat less consistent away from home, with the club winning four, drawing one and losing two of their seven most recent fixtures on the road.
Team News
Leverkusen boast a relatively healthy squad, though they will still have to contend with the absence of centre-back Jeanuel Belocian for the rest of the season.
Edmond Tapsoba, Jonathan Tah and Piero Hincapie are almost certain to start in defence ahead of goalkeeper Lukas Hradecky.
Victor Boniface and Florian Wirtz are likely to take up two of three forward positions, and given Martin Terrier will miss the remainder of the campaign, Nathan Tella could be trusted to play in attack.
The Bavarians come into Saturday's game without left-back Alphonso Davies and goalkeeper Daniel Peretz, though the latter is behind Neuer in the pecking order.
Raphael Guerreiro is the most probable candidate to play on the left side of defence, and he may feature alongside defenders Josip Stanisic, Dayot Upamecano and Kim Min-jae.
Defensive midfielder Joao Palhinha is a doubt as a result of illness, and if he is not deemed ready to play, Joshua Kimmich may be joined in a double pivot by Leon Goretzka.
Bayer Leverkusen possible starting lineup:
Hradecky; Tapsoba, Tah, Hincapie; Frimpong, Xhaka, Andrich, Grimaldo; Wirtz, Boniface, Tella
Bayern Munich possible starting lineup:
Neuer; Stanisic, Upamecano, Kim, Guerreiro; Kimmich, Goretzka; Olise, Musiala, Coman; Kane
We say: Bayer Leverkusen 3-2 Bayern Munich
Leverkusen realistically have to win in order to stay in the title race, and they may leave gaps in their defence when pushing forward in search of a winner.
However, while Bayern will likely score once again, the hosts will feel they can exploit the visitors' vulnerable backline and maintain their slim hopes of retaining their Bundesliga crown.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
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