Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria win with a probability of 36.66%. A win for Vasco da Gama had a probability of 35.55% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.87%) and 2-0 (6.68%). The likeliest Vasco da Gama win was 0-1 (10.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.1%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Vitoria would win this match.
-0.12) 
0.02) 
