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Champions League | Semi-Finals | 1st Leg
Apr 29, 2025 at 8pm UK
Emirates Stadium
PL

Arsenal
vs.
PSG

 

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Arsenal 2-2 Crystal Palace
Wednesday, April 23 at 8pm in Premier League

We say: Arsenal 2-1 Paris Saint-Germain

Increasingly frail at the back and struggling to get Dembele firing on all cylinders in attack, the first signs of fatigue may now be setting in for PSG, who will also come into the first leg with fewer days rest than their North London counterparts. Enrique's men can still be backed to make the net bulge - especially with no Partey acting as the hosts' midfield screen - but the defensive might of Arsenal was unquestioned against Real Madrid, barring one silly William Saliba mistake. Arteta's men are well-equipped to deal with PSG's rampaging full-backs too, and we can picture the Gunners taking a slender lead to the Parc des Princes, although whether that will suffice for a ticket to the final remains to be seen. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Arsenal win with a probability of 41.6%. A win for Paris Saint-Germain has a probability of 33.9% and a draw has a probability of 24.5%.

The most likely scoreline for an Arsenal win is 2-1 with a probability of 8.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-0 (8.25%) and 2-0 (6.41%). The likeliest Paris Saint-Germain win is 1-2 (7.87%), while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (11.39%).

Result
ArsenalDrawParis Saint-Germain
41.6% (0.061 0.06) 24.5% (0.010999999999999 0.01) 33.9% (-0.073999999999998 -0.07)
Both teams to score 59.07% (-0.055 -0.05)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
56.25% (-0.065999999999995 -0.07)43.75% (0.062999999999995 0.06)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
33.86% (-0.063000000000002 -0.06)66.14% (0.062000000000012 0.06)
Arsenal Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
78.89% (0.0020000000000095 0)21.11% (-0.0019999999999989 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
46.05% (0.0010000000000048 0)53.95% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Paris Saint-Germain Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.88% (-0.072999999999993 -0.07)25.12% (0.071999999999999 0.07)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
40.18% (-0.1 -0.1)59.82% (0.099999999999994 0.1)
Score Analysis
    Arsenal 41.6%
    Paris Saint-Germain 33.9%
    Draw 24.49%
ArsenalDrawParis Saint-Germain
2-1 @ 8.86% (0.0070000000000014 0.01)
1-0 @ 8.25% (0.023 0.02)
2-0 @ 6.41% (0.019 0.02)
3-1 @ 4.59% (0.0040000000000004 0)
3-0 @ 3.33% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
3-2 @ 3.17% (-0.004 -0)
4-1 @ 1.79% (0.0010000000000001 0)
4-0 @ 1.29% (0.004 0)
4-2 @ 1.23% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 2.68%
Total : 41.6%
1-1 @ 11.39% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
2-2 @ 6.12% (-0.0069999999999997 -0.01)
0-0 @ 5.3% (0.015 0.01)
3-3 @ 1.46% (-0.0050000000000001 -0.01)
Other @ 0.21%
Total : 24.49%
1-2 @ 7.87% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
0-1 @ 7.33% (0.0049999999999999 0)
0-2 @ 5.06% (-0.0069999999999997 -0.01)
1-3 @ 3.63% (-0.012 -0.01)
2-3 @ 2.82% (-0.01 -0.01)
0-3 @ 2.33% (-0.008 -0.01)
1-4 @ 1.25% (-0.0069999999999999 -0.01)
2-4 @ 0.97% (-0.005 -0.01)
Other @ 2.64%
Total : 33.9%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Arsenal 2-2 Crystal Palace
Wednesday, April 23 at 8pm in Premier League
Last Game: Ipswich 0-4 Arsenal
Sunday, April 20 at 2pm in Premier League
Last Game: Real Madrid 1-2 Arsenal
Wednesday, April 16 at 8pm in Champions League
Last Game: Arsenal 1-1 Brentford
Saturday, April 12 at 5.30pm in Premier League
Last Game: Arsenal 3-0 Real Madrid
Tuesday, April 8 at 8pm in Champions League
Last Game: Everton 1-1 Arsenal
Saturday, April 5 at 12.30pm in Premier League
Last Game: PSG 1-3 Nice
Friday, April 25 at 7.45pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Nantes 1-1 PSG
Tuesday, April 22 at 7.45pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: PSG 2-1 Le Havre
Saturday, April 19 at 4pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Aston Villa 3-2 PSG
Tuesday, April 15 at 8pm in Champions League
Last Game: PSG 3-1 Aston Villa
Wednesday, April 9 at 8pm in Champions League
Last Game: PSG 1-0 Angers
Saturday, April 5 at 4pm in Ligue 1


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