SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 39.1%. A win for Feyenoord had a probability of 35.91% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.43%) and 2-0 (6.16%). The likeliest Feyenoord win was 1-2 (8.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.72%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Atletico Madrid | Draw | Feyenoord |
39.1% ( 0.83) | 24.99% ( -0.09) | 35.91% ( -0.74) |
| Both teams to score 57.72% ( 0.27) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.33% ( 0.38) | 45.67% ( -0.38) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32% ( 0.36) | 67.99% ( -0.36) |
| Atletico Madrid Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.83% ( 0.6) | 23.17% ( -0.6) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.95% ( 0.87) | 57.05% ( -0.87) |
| Feyenoord Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.13% ( -0.23) | 24.87% ( 0.23) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.52% ( -0.33) | 59.47% ( 0.33) |
| Score Analysis |
| Atletico Madrid | Draw | Feyenoord |
| 2-1 @ 8.57% ( 0.11) 1-0 @ 8.43% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 6.16% ( 0.12)3-1 @ 4.18% ( 0.12)3-0 @ 3% ( 0.11)3-2 @ 2.91% ( 0.07)4-1 @ 1.53% ( 0.07)4-0 @ 1.1% ( 0.06)4-2 @ 1.06% ( 0.04)Other @ 2.16% Total : 39.1% | 1-1 @ 11.72% ( -0.06) 2-2 @ 5.97% ( 0.03)0-0 @ 5.76% ( -0.09)3-3 @ 1.35% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.19% Total : 24.98% | 1-2 @ 8.16% ( -0.1) 0-1 @ 8.02% ( -0.19)0-2 @ 5.58% ( -0.17)1-3 @ 3.78% ( -0.07)2-3 @ 2.77% ( -0)0-3 @ 2.59% ( -0.1)1-4 @ 1.32% ( -0.03)2-4 @ 0.96% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.74% Total : 35.91% |
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