SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 40.9%. A win for Barcelona had a probability of 36.6% and a draw had a probability of 22.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.72%) and 2-0 (5.05%). The likeliest Barcelona win was 1-2 (7.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.51%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Borussia Dortmund | Draw | Barcelona |
40.9% ( -4.03) | 22.5% ( -0.01) | 36.6% ( 4.04) |
| Both teams to score 67.22% ( 1.29) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 66.63% ( 1.2) | 33.37% ( -1.2) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 44.85% ( 1.36) | 55.15% ( -1.36) |
| Borussia Dortmund Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.93% ( -1.08) | 17.07% ( 1.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 52.75% ( -1.95) | 47.25% ( 1.95) |
| Barcelona Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.05% ( 2.58) | 18.94% ( -2.58) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 49.54% ( 4.12) | 50.46% ( -4.12) |
| Score Analysis |
| Borussia Dortmund | Draw | Barcelona |
| 2-1 @ 8.41% ( -0.48) 1-0 @ 5.72% ( -0.59)2-0 @ 5.05% ( -0.73)3-1 @ 4.95% ( -0.47)3-2 @ 4.12% ( -0.05)3-0 @ 2.98% ( -0.56)4-1 @ 2.19% ( -0.3)4-2 @ 1.82% ( -0.09)4-0 @ 1.32% ( -0.3)4-3 @ 1.01% ( 0.03)Other @ 3.34% Total : 40.91% | 1-1 @ 9.51% ( -0.18) 2-2 @ 6.99% ( 0.17)0-0 @ 3.23% ( -0.21)3-3 @ 2.29% ( 0.15)Other @ 0.47% Total : 22.5% | 1-2 @ 7.91% ( 0.47) 0-1 @ 5.38% ( 0.09)0-2 @ 4.48% ( 0.42)1-3 @ 4.39% ( 0.58)2-3 @ 3.88% ( 0.39)0-3 @ 2.48% ( 0.4)1-4 @ 1.83% ( 0.36)2-4 @ 1.61% ( 0.27)0-4 @ 1.03% ( 0.23)3-4 @ 0.95% ( 0.13)Other @ 2.66% Total : 36.6% |
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