SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ferencvaros win with a probability of 44.13%. A win for Tobol had a probability of 30.08% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ferencvaros win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.03%) and 2-0 (7.72%). The likeliest Tobol win was 0-1 (8.33%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.26%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ferencvaros would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Ferencvaros | Draw | Tobol |
44.13% ( 0.02) | 25.79% ( 0) | 30.08% ( -0.02) |
| Both teams to score 53.15% ( -0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.22% ( -0.02) | 50.77% ( 0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.33% ( -0.01) | 72.67% ( 0.01) |
| Ferencvaros Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.07% | 22.92% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.31% | 56.69% ( -0) |
| Tobol Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.96% ( -0.02) | 31.04% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.64% ( -0.02) | 67.36% ( 0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Ferencvaros | Draw | Tobol |
| 1-0 @ 10.48% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 9.03% ( 0)2-0 @ 7.72% ( 0)3-1 @ 4.43% ( 0)3-0 @ 3.79% ( 0)3-2 @ 2.59% 4-1 @ 1.63% ( 0)4-0 @ 1.4% ( 0)4-2 @ 0.96% Other @ 2.1% Total : 44.13% | 1-1 @ 12.26% 0-0 @ 7.12% ( 0)2-2 @ 5.28% ( -0)3-3 @ 1.01% ( -0)Other @ 0.12% Total : 25.79% | 0-1 @ 8.33% 1-2 @ 7.17% ( -0)0-2 @ 4.87% ( -0)1-3 @ 2.8% ( -0)2-3 @ 2.06% ( -0)0-3 @ 1.9% ( -0)Other @ 2.96% Total : 30.08% |
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