Tobol more than held their own in the first leg last week, but it is a big ask for them to triumph on Wednesday night. We are expecting it to be a tight affair but believe that Ferencvaros will ultimately have too much and are backing the Hungarian side to advance to the second qualifying round.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ferencvaros win with a probability of 44.13%. A win for Tobol had a probability of 30.08% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ferencvaros win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.03%) and 2-0 (7.72%). The likeliest Tobol win was 0-1 (8.33%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.26%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ferencvaros would win this match.
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