We said: Manchester City 2-2 Real Madrid
The less said about Man City's display at Leyton Orient the better, but Guardiola inevitably made a surfeit of changes, and the champions of England have rediscovered a knack for goals - and indeed victories - on their Etihad turf recently.
The hosts' offensive exploits on their own patch spells trouble for Real Madrid and their decimated defence, but Ancelotti's men never know when they are beaten in Europe, and we expect the holders to return home the happier after an entertaining first-leg draw.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 48.09%. A win for Real Madrid had a probability of 29.03% and a draw had a probability of 22.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.5%) and 2-0 (6.82%). The likeliest Real Madrid win was 1-2 (7.04%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.27%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood.
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