Cardiff head into the derby in much better form and we think the Bluebirds will come out on top to stop their rivals doing the league double over them. Morison is getting the best out of his team and they could end the season strongly. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cardiff City win with a probability of 37.81%. A win for Swansea City had a probability of 34.46% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Cardiff City win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.03%) and 2-0 (6.93%). The likeliest Swansea City win was 0-1 (10.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.08%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood.

Result
Cardiff City	Draw	Swansea City
37.81%	27.73%	34.46%

Both teams to score 48.52%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

42.69%

57.31%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

21.85%

78.14%

Cardiff City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.71%

29.29%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

34.74%

65.25%

Swansea City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.62%

31.38%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.25%

67.75%

Score Analysis

Cardiff City 37.8%

Swansea City 34.46%

Draw 27.73%

Cardiff City	Draw	Swansea City
1-0 @ 11.28% 2-1 @ 8.03% 2-0 @ 6.93% 3-1 @ 3.29% 3-0 @ 2.84% 3-2 @ 1.91% 4-1 @ 1.01% Other @ 2.53% Total : 37.8%	1-1 @ 13.08% 0-0 @ 9.19% 2-2 @ 4.65% Other @ 0.81% Total : 27.73%	0-1 @ 10.65% 1-2 @ 7.58% 0-2 @ 6.17% 1-3 @ 2.93% 0-3 @ 2.39% 2-3 @ 1.8% Other @ 2.94% Total : 34.46%