Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Beijing Guoan win with a probability of 67.63%. A draw had a probability of 19.3% and a win for Qingdao Hainiu had a probability of 13.07%.
The most likely scoreline for a Beijing Guoan win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.4%) and 2-1 (9.71%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.18%), while for a Qingdao Hainiu win it was 0-1 (4.34%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Beijing Guoan would win this match.