This could be a very tricky assignment for Atletico, as Getafe are in good form and do not concede many goals; that said, we are finding it difficult to back the visitors to triumph, with Simeone's side potentially running out 1-0 winners to advance to the next round.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 63.97%. A draw had a probability of 22.4% and a win for Getafe had a probability of 13.67%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.52%) and 2-1 (9.22%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.3%), while for a Getafe win it was 0-1 (5.76%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.