Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Botafogo win with a probability of 81.73%. A draw had a probability of 12.1% and a win for Capital Brasilia had a probability of 6.16%.
The most likely scoreline for a Botafogo win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (11.39%) and 1-0 (8.53%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.73%), while for a Capital Brasilia win it was 0-1 (2.02%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Botafogo would win this match.
-0.22) 
0.39) 
