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Copa do Brasil | Third Round | 1st Leg
Apr 30, 2025 at 11.30pm UK
Estadio Governador Placido Aderaldo Castelo
P

Ceara
0 - 1
Palmeiras


Mugni (10'), Henrique (43'), Estefani Machado (49')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Gomez (34')
Willian (14'), Giay (21'), Martinez (79'), Mauricio (90+6')
Coverage of the Copa do Brasil Third Round clash between Ceara and Palmeiras.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Ceara 1-1 Sao Paulo
Saturday, April 26 at 10.30pm in Brasileiro
Last Game: Palmeiras 0-1 Bahia
Sunday, April 27 at 10.30pm in Brasileiro

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Palmeiras win with a probability of 43.27%. A win for Ceara had a probability of 29.45% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Palmeiras win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.65%) and 0-2 (8.18%). The likeliest Ceara win was 1-0 (9.57%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.87%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 12.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Palmeiras in this match.

Result
CearaDrawPalmeiras
29.45% (-0.0039999999999978 -0) 27.29% (0.0060000000000002 0.01) 43.27% (-0.0020000000000024 -0)
Both teams to score 48.29% (-0.014000000000003 -0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
43.12% (-0.020000000000003 -0.02)56.88% (0.019000000000005 0.02)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
22.2% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)77.8% (0.01400000000001 0.01)
Ceara Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
65.31% (-0.010999999999996 -0.01)34.69% (0.011000000000003 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
28.58% (-0.010999999999999 -0.01)71.42% (0.012 0.01)
Palmeiras Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.94% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)26.06% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
38.89% (-0.012 -0.01)61.1% (0.009999999999998 0.01)
Score Analysis
    Ceara 29.45%
    Palmeiras 43.26%
    Draw 27.28%
CearaDrawPalmeiras
1-0 @ 9.57% (0.0039999999999996 0)
2-1 @ 6.81% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
2-0 @ 5.07%
3-1 @ 2.4% (-0.0020000000000002 -0)
3-0 @ 1.79%
3-2 @ 1.62% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
Other @ 2.19%
Total : 29.45%
1-1 @ 12.87% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
0-0 @ 9.04% (0.0059999999999985 0.01)
2-2 @ 4.58% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
Other @ 0.79%
Total : 27.28%
0-1 @ 12.15%
1-2 @ 8.65% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
0-2 @ 8.18% (0.0020000000000007 0)
1-3 @ 3.88% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
0-3 @ 3.66% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
2-3 @ 2.05% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
1-4 @ 1.3% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
0-4 @ 1.23%
Other @ 2.15%
Total : 43.26%

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Form Guide
Last Game: Ceara 1-1 Sao Paulo
Saturday, April 26 at 10.30pm in Brasileiro
Last Game: Bahia 1-0 Ceara
Tuesday, April 22 at 12am in Brasileiro
Last Game: Ceara 2-1 Vasco
Wednesday, April 16 at 1.30am in Brasileiro
Last Game: Juventude 2-1 Ceara
Saturday, April 12 at 8pm in Brasileiro
Last Game: Ceara 2-0 Gremio
Saturday, April 5 at 10.30pm in Brasileiro
Last Game: Bragantino 2-2 Ceara
Tuesday, April 1 at 12am in Brasileiro
Last Game: Palmeiras 0-1 Bahia
Sunday, April 27 at 10.30pm in Brasileiro
Last Game: Bolivar 2-3 Palmeiras
Thursday, April 24 at 11pm in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Fortaleza 1-2 Palmeiras
Sunday, April 20 at 10.30pm in Brasileiro
Last Game: Internacional 0-1 Palmeiras
Wednesday, April 16 at 11.30pm in Brasileiro
Last Game: Palmeiras 2-0 Corinthians
Saturday, April 12 at 10.30pm in Brasileiro
Last Game: Palmeiras 1-0 Cerro Porteno
Thursday, April 10 at 1.30am in Copa Libertadores


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