Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fluminense win with a probability of 74.58%. A draw had a probability of 16.5% and a win for Aparecidense had a probability of 8.88%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fluminense win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12%) and 3-0 (10.58%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.84%), while for an Aparecidense win it was 0-1 (3.41%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Fluminense would win this match.
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