The Ecuadorian champions have been in their share of close games and are solid when it comes to limiting their opponents' opportunities, but we do not believe they will be able to match the physicality that Galo possesses, which should be enough to send the Brazilians into the next round of this competition.
Read more.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Mineiro win with a probability of 68.82%. A draw had a probability of 21.8% and a win for Independiente del Valle had a probability of 9.43%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Mineiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 18.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (16.53%) and 3-0 (9.68%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (10.71%), while for a Independiente del Valle win it was 0-1 (5.11%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Mineiro would win this match.
0) 
-0.01) 
