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Copa Sudamericana | Semi-Finals | 1st Leg
Sep 27, 2023 at 1.30am UK
Arena Corinthians
F

Corinthians
1 - 1
Fortaleza

Alberto (40')
Verissimo (38'), Moscardo (63'), Augusto (90+5')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Welison (22')
Britez (57'), Guilherme (67'), Pacheco (88')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Sao Paulo 1-2 Fortaleza
Thursday, September 21 at 1.30am in Brasileiro

We said: Corinthians 1-1 Fortaleza

While the visitors did grab a 2-1 win over this opponent a couple of weeks ago, Timao are a difficult side to beat at the Neo Quimica Arena, where they sport an 11-match unbeaten streak. Neither side will want to be behind heading into the second leg, and we feel they will likely end up settling for a share of the spoils. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Corinthians win with a probability of 46.02%. A draw had a probability of 27.1% and a win for Fortaleza had a probability of 26.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Corinthians win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.9%) and 2-1 (8.86%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.73%), while for a Fortaleza win it was 0-1 (9.16%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.

Result
CorinthiansDrawFortaleza
46.02% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01) 27.08% (-0.0019999999999989 -0) 26.9% (0.016999999999999 0.02)
Both teams to score 47.35% (0.019999999999996 0.02)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
42.66% (0.021999999999998 0.02)57.34% (-0.016999999999996 -0.02)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
21.84% (0.018999999999998 0.02)78.17% (-0.012999999999991 -0.01)
Corinthians Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.12% (0.0049999999999955 0)24.89%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
40.5% (0.0069999999999979 0.01)59.5% (-0.0020000000000024 -0)
Fortaleza Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
63.03% (0.025999999999996 0.03)36.97% (-0.021000000000001 -0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
26.25% (0.026 0.03)73.76% (-0.02000000000001 -0.02)
Score Analysis
    Corinthians 46.01%
    Fortaleza 26.9%
    Draw 27.08%
CorinthiansDrawFortaleza
1-0 @ 12.79% (-0.010000000000002 -0.01)
2-0 @ 8.9% (-0.0050000000000008 -0.01)
2-1 @ 8.86%
3-0 @ 4.13% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
3-1 @ 4.11%
3-2 @ 2.04% (0.0020000000000002 0)
4-0 @ 1.44%
4-1 @ 1.43% (0.00099999999999989 0)
Other @ 2.33%
Total : 46.01%
1-1 @ 12.73%
0-0 @ 9.2% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
2-2 @ 4.41% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Other @ 0.74%
Total : 27.08%
0-1 @ 9.16%
1-2 @ 6.34% (0.0030000000000001 0)
0-2 @ 4.56% (0.0030000000000001 0)
1-3 @ 2.1% (0.0019999999999998 0)
0-3 @ 1.51% (0.002 0)
2-3 @ 1.46% (0.0010000000000001 0)
Other @ 1.79%
Total : 26.9%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Corinthians 1-0 Botafogo
Saturday, September 23 at 12am in Brasileiro
Last Game: Corinthians 4-4 Gremio
Tuesday, September 19 at 1am in Brasileiro
Last Game: Fortaleza 2-1 Corinthians
Thursday, September 14 at 11pm in Brasileiro
Last Game: Corinthians 0-0 Palmeiras
Sunday, September 3 at 8pm in Brasileiro
Last Game: Estudiantes 1-0 Corinthians (2-3 pen.)
Wednesday, August 30 at 1.30am in Copa Sudamericana
Last Game: Corinthians 1-1 Goias
Sunday, August 27 at 1am in Brasileiro
Last Game: Sao Paulo 1-2 Fortaleza
Thursday, September 21 at 1.30am in Brasileiro
Last Game: Fortaleza 2-1 Corinthians
Thursday, September 14 at 11pm in Brasileiro
Last Game: Fluminense 1-0 Fortaleza
Sunday, September 3 at 8pm in Brasileiro
Last Game: Fortaleza 2-1 America Mineiro
Thursday, August 31 at 11pm in Copa Sudamericana
Last Game: Fortaleza 3-1 Coritiba
Sunday, August 27 at 10.30pm in Brasileiro
Last Game: America Mineiro 1-3 Fortaleza
Thursday, August 24 at 11pm in Copa Sudamericana


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