Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Montevideo Wanderers win with a probability of 46.74%. A win for Cerro Largo had a probability of 28.38% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Montevideo Wanderers win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.33%) and 2-0 (7.92%). The likeliest Cerro Largo win was 0-1 (7.44%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.78%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Montevideo Wanderers would win this match.
