Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria win with a probability of 59.15%. A draw had a probability of 25.2% and a win for Cerro Largo had a probability of 15.68%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.16%) and 2-1 (8.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.18%), while for a Cerro Largo win it was 0-1 (7.13%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood.
-0.04) 
0.01) 
