Lecce have struggled for goals of late, but a change of personnel could help them recover their poise in the final third. Under Fabio Pecchia, Parma rarely concede more than once, but their hosts have some skilful forwards that can open up the Gialloblu's back line.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lecce win with a probability of 44.47%. A win for Parma had a probability of 28.61% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lecce win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.83%) and 2-0 (8.36%). The likeliest Parma win was 0-1 (9.18%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.73%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood.
0.05) 
-0.18) 
