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Coupe de France | Round of 16
Feb 4, 2025 at 6pm UK
Stade de l'Aube
BL

Troyes
1 - 2
Brest

Magnetti (55' og.)
FT(HT: 0-0)
Salah (49'), Sima (90+2')
Bourgault (47'), Coulibaly (90')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Troyes 3-0 Caen
Saturday, February 1 at 1pm in Ligue 2
Last Game: Brest 2-5 PSG
Saturday, February 1 at 4pm in Ligue 1

We said: Troyes 0-1 Brest

Expect to see primarily defensive tactics for Troyes on Tuesday, though their upcoming opponents have the pieces to counter that and have won their share of close games domestically this year. Several of Brest's top attacking playmakers are back from the injury front and should be able to eventually unlock a stubborn ESTAC backline. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brest win with a probability of 38.67%. A win for Troyes had a probability of 34.04% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Brest win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.23%) and 0-2 (7%). The likeliest Troyes win was 1-0 (10.15%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.93%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Brest would win this match.

Result
TroyesDrawBrest
34.04% (-0.536 -0.54) 27.29% (-0.091999999999999 -0.09) 38.67% (0.624 0.62)
Both teams to score 49.8% (0.206 0.21)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
44.32% (0.291 0.29)55.68% (-0.29499999999999 -0.29)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
23.17% (0.238 0.24)76.83% (-0.24199999999999 -0.24)
Troyes Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
69.17% (-0.202 -0.2)30.83% (0.198 0.2)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
32.89% (-0.238 -0.24)67.11% (0.233 0.23)
Brest Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72% (0.501 0.5)28% (-0.506 -0.51)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
36.36% (0.638 0.64)63.64% (-0.64100000000001 -0.64)
Score Analysis
    Troyes 34.03%
    Brest 38.66%
    Draw 27.29%
TroyesDrawBrest
1-0 @ 10.15% (-0.18 -0.18)
2-1 @ 7.61% (-0.063 -0.06)
2-0 @ 5.98% (-0.135 -0.14)
3-1 @ 2.98% (-0.042 -0.04)
3-0 @ 2.34% (-0.066 -0.07)
3-2 @ 1.9% (0.0010000000000001 0)
Other @ 3.07%
Total : 34.03%
1-1 @ 12.93% (-0.030000000000001 -0.03)
0-0 @ 8.63% (-0.099 -0.1)
2-2 @ 4.84% (0.029 0.03)
Other @ 0.89%
Total : 27.29%
0-1 @ 10.98% (0.030000000000001 0.03)
1-2 @ 8.23% (0.093 0.09)
0-2 @ 7% (0.117 0.12)
1-3 @ 3.49% (0.088 0.09)
0-3 @ 2.97% (0.09 0.09)
2-3 @ 2.06% (0.041 0.04)
1-4 @ 1.11% (0.043 0.04)
0-4 @ 0.95% (0.042 0.04)
Other @ 1.88%
Total : 38.66%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Troyes 3-0 Caen
Saturday, February 1 at 1pm in Ligue 2
Last Game: Laval 1-0 Troyes
Friday, January 24 at 7pm in Ligue 2
Last Game: Troyes 0-1 Annecy
Monday, January 20 at 7.45pm in Ligue 2
Last Game: Troyes 1-0 Rennes
Wednesday, January 15 at 5.30pm in Coupe de France
Last Game: Rodez AF 2-1 Troyes
Friday, January 10 at 7pm in Ligue 2
Last Game: Amiens 0-3 Troyes
Friday, January 3 at 7pm in Ligue 2
Last Game: Brest 2-5 PSG
Saturday, February 1 at 4pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Brest 0-3 Real Madrid
Wednesday, January 29 at 8pm in Champions League
Last Game: Le Havre 0-1 Brest
Sunday, January 26 at 2pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Shakhtar 2-0 Brest
Wednesday, January 22 at 5.45pm in Champions League
Last Game: Rennes 1-2 Brest
Saturday, January 18 at 6pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Brest 2-1 Nantes
Wednesday, January 15 at 5.30pm in Coupe de France


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