Middlesbrough are yet to set the word alight in the Championship but will be hoping for more joy in the EFL Cup against third-tier opposition this weekend. Barnsley will fancy their chances of causing an upset, but we can see the hosts coming out on top with a slender victory to open their account for the new season. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Middlesbrough win with a probability of 54.91%. A draw had a probability of 24.4% and a win for Barnsley had a probability of 20.71%.

The most likely scoreline for a Middlesbrough win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.47%) and 2-1 (9.6%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.56%), while for a Barnsley win it was 0-1 (6.96%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7% likelihood.

Result
Middlesbrough	Draw	Barnsley
54.91% ( -0.58)	24.38% ( 0.28)	20.71% ( 0.3)

Both teams to score 48.61% (

-0.4)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

47.59% (

-0.75)

52.4% (

0.75)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

25.92% (

-0.65)

74.08% (

0.65)

Middlesbrough Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.01% (

-0.5)

18.99% (

0.51)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

49.46% (

-0.85)

50.54% (

0.85)

Barnsley Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

60.01% (

-0.11)

39.99% (

0.11)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

23.36% (

-0.1)

76.64% (

0.11)

Score Analysis

Middlesbrough 54.89%

Barnsley 20.71%

Draw 24.38%

Middlesbrough	Draw	Barnsley
1-0 @ 12.61% ( 0.17) 2-0 @ 10.47% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 9.6% ( -0.05) 3-0 @ 5.8% ( -0.11) 3-1 @ 5.32% ( -0.12) 3-2 @ 2.44% ( -0.06) 4-0 @ 2.41% ( -0.09) 4-1 @ 2.21% ( -0.09) 4-2 @ 1.01% ( -0.04) Other @ 3.02% Total : 54.89%	1-1 @ 11.56% ( 0.12) 0-0 @ 7.6% ( 0.22) 2-2 @ 4.4% ( -0.04) Other @ 0.82% Total : 24.38%	0-1 @ 6.96% ( 0.19) 1-2 @ 5.3% ( 0.04) 0-2 @ 3.19% ( 0.07) 1-3 @ 1.62% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 1.35% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 0.98% ( 0.02) Other @ 1.32% Total : 20.71%