With just two goals between them so far, these sides are clearly not in full flow yet inside the final third. In a tightly-contested tie, then, Shrewsbury can make use of home advantage to advance from the first round.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 39.3%. A win for Shrewsbury Town had a probability of 34.04% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.43%) and 0-2 (6.92%). The likeliest Shrewsbury Town win was 1-0 (9.53%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.67%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Shrewsbury Town would win this match.
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