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EFL Trophy | Quarter-Finals
Feb 4, 2025 at 7.45pm UK
The Lamex Stadium
BL

Stevenage
0 - 1
Birmingham


Thompson (59'), Piergianni (79')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Stansfield (83')
Iwata (78'), Stansfield (84')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Stevenage 4-1 Exeter
Saturday, February 1 at 12.30pm in League One
Last Game: Birmingham 2-1 Rotherham
Saturday, February 1 at 3pm in League One

We said: Stevenage 2-3 Birmingham City

Given the recent form of both sides and their respective goals record in recent times, this match is likely to be a high-scoring one. The hosts have scored nine in four games across all competitions, while the visitors have recorded eight in their last five matches. However, considering the quality of the away side, we reckon Birmingham will claim a 3-2 win on Tuesday. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Birmingham City win with a probability of 46.91%. A draw had a probability of 26.6% and a win for Stevenage had a probability of 26.52%.

The most likely scoreline for a Birmingham City win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.03%) and 0-2 (8.94%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.56%), while for a Stevenage win it was 1-0 (8.74%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 12.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Birmingham City in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Birmingham City.

Result
StevenageDrawBirmingham City
26.52% (0.16 0.16) 26.58% (-0.299 -0.3) 46.91% (0.139 0.14)
Both teams to score 48.49% (0.967 0.97)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
44.27% (1.189 1.19)55.73% (-1.192 -1.19)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
23.13% (0.959 0.96)76.87% (-0.962 -0.96)
Stevenage Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
63.59% (0.785 0.79)36.41% (-0.787 -0.79)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
26.8% (0.785 0.79)73.2% (-0.788 -0.79)
Birmingham City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.25% (0.58499999999999 0.58)23.75% (-0.589 -0.59)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
42.11% (0.834 0.83)57.9% (-0.837 -0.84)
Score Analysis
    Stevenage 26.52%
    Birmingham City 46.9%
    Draw 26.58%
StevenageDrawBirmingham City
1-0 @ 8.74% (-0.216 -0.22)
2-1 @ 6.35% (0.09 0.09)
2-0 @ 4.41% (-0.013 -0.01)
3-1 @ 2.14% (0.075 0.08)
3-2 @ 1.54% (0.079 0.08)
3-0 @ 1.49% (0.027 0.03)
Other @ 1.86%
Total : 26.52%
1-1 @ 12.56% (-0.09 -0.09)
0-0 @ 8.65% (-0.406 -0.41)
2-2 @ 4.56% (0.14 0.14)
Other @ 0.81%
Total : 26.58%
0-1 @ 12.43% (-0.36 -0.36)
1-2 @ 9.03% (0.089 0.09)
0-2 @ 8.94% (-0.104 -0.1)
1-3 @ 4.33% (0.115 0.11)
0-3 @ 4.28% (0.024 0.02)
2-3 @ 2.19% (0.103 0.1)
1-4 @ 1.56% (0.067 0.07)
0-4 @ 1.54% (0.035 0.03)
Other @ 2.62%
Total : 46.9%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Stevenage 4-1 Exeter
Saturday, February 1 at 12.30pm in League One
Last Game: Wrexham 2-3 Stevenage
Tuesday, January 28 at 7.45pm in League One
Last Game: Barnsley 0-1 Stevenage
Saturday, January 25 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Leyton Orient 0-1 Stevenage
Tuesday, January 21 at 7pm in EFL Trophy
Last Game: Stevenage 1-2 Wigan
Saturday, January 18 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Lincoln 0-0 Stevenage
Saturday, January 4 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Birmingham 2-1 Rotherham
Saturday, February 1 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Huddersfield 0-1 Birmingham
Tuesday, January 28 at 8pm in League One
Last Game: Wrexham 1-1 Birmingham
Thursday, January 23 at 8pm in League One
Last Game: Birmingham 1-0 Exeter
Saturday, January 18 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Swindon 1-2 Birmingham
Tuesday, January 14 at 7.30pm in EFL Trophy
Last Game: Birmingham 2-1 Lincoln
Saturday, January 11 at 12pm in FA Cup


Sports Mole provides in-depth previews and predictions for every match from the biggest leagues and competitions in world football.
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