SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 4 | FC Twente | 33 | 17 | 65 |
| 5 | AZ Alkmaar | 33 | 22 | 61 |
| 6 | Vitesse | 33 | -9 | 50 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 5 | AZ Alkmaar | 33 | 22 | 61 |
| 6 | Vitesse | 33 | -9 | 50 |
| 7 | FC Utrecht | 33 | 8 | 47 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 58.26%. A draw had a probability of 22.2% and a win for Vitesse had a probability of 19.57%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.93%) and 2-1 (9.93%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.49%), while for a Vitesse win it was 0-1 (5.54%). The actual scoreline of 6-1 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.
| Result | ||
| AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Vitesse |
58.26% ( 1.38) | 22.17% ( -0.4) | 19.57% ( -0.97) |
| Both teams to score 53.68% ( -0.25) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.23% ( 0.43) | 44.77% ( -0.42) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.87% ( 0.41) | 67.13% ( -0.41) |
| AZ Alkmaar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.94% ( 0.61) | 15.07% ( -0.6) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 56.42% ( 1.13) | 43.58% ( -1.12) |
| Vitesse Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.2% ( -0.75) | 36.8% ( 0.76) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.41% ( -0.76) | 73.59% ( 0.76) |
| Score Analysis |
| AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Vitesse |
| 1-0 @ 10.49% ( 0.03) 2-0 @ 9.93% ( 0.23)2-1 @ 9.93% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 6.27% ( 0.27)3-1 @ 6.26% ( 0.15)3-2 @ 3.13% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 2.97% ( 0.19)4-1 @ 2.96% ( 0.13)4-2 @ 1.48% ( 0.04)5-0 @ 1.12% ( 0.09)5-1 @ 1.12% ( 0.07)Other @ 2.59% Total : 58.25% | 1-1 @ 10.49% ( -0.19) 0-0 @ 5.55% ( -0.1)2-2 @ 4.96% ( -0.09)3-3 @ 1.04% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.13% Total : 22.17% | 0-1 @ 5.54% ( -0.22) 1-2 @ 5.24% ( -0.21)0-2 @ 2.77% ( -0.17)1-3 @ 1.75% ( -0.11)2-3 @ 1.65% ( -0.07)0-3 @ 0.92% ( -0.08)Other @ 1.69% Total : 19.57% |
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