AZ Alkmaar eased to victory in the reverse fixture against Utrecht, and though we expect Wednesday's contest to be closely-fought, we think that the visitors will have too much quality for their hosts.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 42.75%. A win for FC Utrecht had a probability of 32.23% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.98%) and 0-2 (6.96%). The likeliest FC Utrecht win was 1-0 (7.74%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.79%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood.
-0.77) 
0.86) 
