We said: Heerenveen 2-2 AZ Alkmaar
AZ have had no problems finding the net despite their dip in form, while there have been goals aplenty in recent games involving Heerenveen, so an entertaining contest is expected at the Abe Lenstra Stadion.
However, with little to separate these two teams, a score draw could be on the cards, keeping the tie nicely poised heading into Sunday's second leg.
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 45.32%. A win for Heerenveen had a probability of 30.44% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.7%) and 0-2 (7.11%). The likeliest Heerenveen win was 2-1 (7.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.29%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood.