In what will no doubt be a nerve-wracking experience for both clubs, do not expect the most action-packed game that you have ever seen. Much will depend on how Fortuna Sittard are faring elsewhere, but the most likely result is a low-scoring draw, a result which would benefit Heracles more so than Sparta.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Heracles win with a probability of 53.53%. A draw had a probability of 24.4% and a win for Sparta Rotterdam had a probability of 22.12%.
The most likely scoreline for a Heracles win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.87%) and 2-1 (9.65%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.58%), while for a Sparta Rotterdam win it was 0-1 (6.95%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood.
-0.23) 
0.08) 
