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IN
European Championship | Final
Jul 11, 2021 at 8pm UK
Wembley Stadium
EN

Italy
1 - 1
England

Italy win 3-2 on penalties
Bonucci (67')
Barella (47'), Bonucci (55'), Insigne (84'), Chiellini (90+6'), Jorginho (114')
FT
(aet)
Shaw (2')
Maguire (106')

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a England win with a probability of 37.44%. A win for Italy had a probability of 35.27% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a England win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.08%) and 0-2 (6.71%). The likeliest Italy win was 1-0 (10.35%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.93%).

Result
ItalyDrawEngland
35.27%27.29%37.44%
Both teams to score 49.95%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
44.44%55.56%
Over 3.5Under 3.5
23.27%76.73%
Italy Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
70.02%29.98%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
33.9%66.1%
England Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
71.34%28.66%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
35.53%64.47%
Score Analysis
    Italy 35.27%
    England 37.43%
    Draw 27.29%
ItalyDrawEngland
1-0 @ 10.35%
2-1 @ 7.79%
2-0 @ 6.23%
3-1 @ 3.13%
3-0 @ 2.5%
3-2 @ 1.96%
4-1 @ 0.94%
Other @ 2.37%
Total : 35.27%
1-1 @ 12.93%
0-0 @ 8.59%
2-2 @ 4.87%
Other @ 0.9%
Total : 27.29%
0-1 @ 10.73%
1-2 @ 8.08%
0-2 @ 6.71%
1-3 @ 3.37%
0-3 @ 2.8%
2-3 @ 2.03%
1-4 @ 1.05%
Other @ 2.67%
Total : 37.43%

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