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FA Cup | Third Round
Jan 11, 2025 at 12pm UK
St. Andrew's Stadium
LC

Birmingham
2 - 1
Lincoln

Yokoyama (1'), Dykes (77')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Makama (90' pen.)
Montsma (83')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Wigan 0-3 Birmingham
Saturday, January 4 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Lincoln 0-0 Stevenage
Saturday, January 4 at 3pm in League One

We said: Birmingham City 2-0 Lincoln City

Likely to rotate following a hectic festive schedule, a disjointed Birmingham side might struggle to find their rhythm in the FA Cup this weekend. However, Blues should have enough quality on the pitch and in reserve for success, especially considering Lincoln's recent struggles in front of goal. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Birmingham City win with a probability of 65.75%. A draw had a probability of 20.6% and a win for Lincoln City had a probability of 13.63%.

The most likely scoreline for a Birmingham City win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.6%) and 2-1 (9.63%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.77%), while for a Lincoln City win it was 0-1 (4.96%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Birmingham City would win this match.

Result
Birmingham CityDrawLincoln City
65.75% (0.033000000000001 0.03) 20.61% (-0.010999999999999 -0.01) 13.63% (-0.025 -0.03)
Both teams to score 45.97% (-0.036999999999999 -0.04)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
51.49% (-0.014000000000003 -0.01)48.51% (0.012 0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
29.36% (-0.012999999999998 -0.01)70.63% (0.010000000000005 0.01)
Birmingham City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
86.07% (0.0049999999999955 0)13.93% (-0.0069999999999997 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
58.61% (0.010000000000005 0.01)41.39% (-0.013999999999996 -0.01)
Lincoln City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
53.41% (-0.047000000000004 -0.05)46.59% (0.045000000000002 0.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
17.83% (-0.036000000000001 -0.04)82.17% (0.033000000000001 0.03)
Score Analysis
    Birmingham City 65.75%
    Lincoln City 13.63%
    Draw 20.61%
Birmingham CityDrawLincoln City
1-0 @ 12.79% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
2-0 @ 12.6% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
2-1 @ 9.63% (-0.0029999999999983 -0)
3-0 @ 8.28% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
3-1 @ 6.33% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
4-0 @ 4.08% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
4-1 @ 3.12% (0.00099999999999989 0)
3-2 @ 2.42% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
5-0 @ 1.61% (0.0029999999999999 0)
5-1 @ 1.23%
4-2 @ 1.19% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
Other @ 2.47%
Total : 65.75%
1-1 @ 9.77% (-0.004999999999999 -0)
0-0 @ 6.49% (0.0030000000000001 0)
2-2 @ 3.68% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
Other @ 0.68%
Total : 20.61%
0-1 @ 4.96% (-0.0040000000000004 -0)
1-2 @ 3.73% (-0.0069999999999997 -0.01)
0-2 @ 1.89% (-0.004 -0)
1-3 @ 0.95% (-0.003 -0)
2-3 @ 0.94% (-0.0019999999999999 -0)
Other @ 1.16%
Total : 13.63%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Wigan 0-3 Birmingham
Saturday, January 4 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Stockport 1-1 Birmingham
Wednesday, January 1 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Birmingham 0-0 Blackpool
Sunday, December 29 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Birmingham 2-0 Burton Albion
Thursday, December 26 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Crawley 0-1 Birmingham
Monday, December 23 at 8.15pm in League One
Last Game: Birmingham 2-0 Bristol Rovers
Saturday, December 14 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Lincoln 0-0 Stevenage
Saturday, January 4 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Lincoln 0-1 Rotherham
Wednesday, January 1 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Bolton 3-0 Lincoln
Sunday, December 29 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Shrewsbury 1-0 Lincoln
Thursday, December 26 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Lincoln 2-0 Reading
Saturday, December 21 at 12.30pm in League One
Last Game: Huddersfield 2-2 Lincoln
Saturday, December 14 at 3pm in League One


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