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FA Cup | Second Round
Dec 4, 2021 at 12.45pm UK
 
M

Buxton
0 - 1
Morecambe


Elliott (45+1'), Meikle (50')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Stockton (29')

We said: Buxton 1-3 Morecambe

As much as we would love to predict an upset here, we do think that Morecambe's higher-level quality should see them through the tie. Expect it to be nervy for the League One outfit though, particularly if they do not make a fast start to the game. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Morecambe win with a probability of 58.67%. A win for Buxton had a probability of 20.83% and a draw had a probability of 20.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Morecambe win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.08%) and 0-1 (7.57%). The likeliest Buxton win was 2-1 (5.49%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.12%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Morecambe would win this match.

Result
BuxtonDrawMorecambe
20.83%20.49%58.67%
Both teams to score 61.73%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
64.85%35.15%
Over 3.5Under 3.5
42.84%57.16%
Buxton Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
70%30%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
33.88%66.12%
Morecambe Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
88.18%11.82%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
62.95%37.05%
Score Analysis
    Buxton 20.83%
    Morecambe 58.67%
    Draw 20.49%
BuxtonDrawMorecambe
2-1 @ 5.49%
1-0 @ 4.27%
2-0 @ 2.57%
3-2 @ 2.35%
3-1 @ 2.2%
3-0 @ 1.03%
Other @ 2.93%
Total : 20.83%
1-1 @ 9.12%
2-2 @ 5.86%
0-0 @ 3.55%
3-3 @ 1.67%
Other @ 0.3%
Total : 20.49%
1-2 @ 9.73%
0-2 @ 8.08%
0-1 @ 7.57%
1-3 @ 6.93%
0-3 @ 5.76%
2-3 @ 4.17%
1-4 @ 3.7%
0-4 @ 3.07%
2-4 @ 2.23%
1-5 @ 1.58%
0-5 @ 1.31%
2-5 @ 0.95%
Other @ 3.58%
Total : 58.67%

Read more!
Read more!


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