While Oxford are set to make a number of changes for the third-round tie, they will still carry plenty of momentum into the weekend after winning three and drawing one of their four matches under Rowett, and we think that they will keep that run going by claiming a narrow victory over a club they have beaten in four of their last five meetings.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Exeter City win with a probability of 45.41%. A win for Oxford United had a probability of 29.18% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Exeter City win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.18%) and 2-0 (7.86%). The likeliest Oxford United win was 0-1 (7.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.07%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Exeter City would win this match.
0.01) 
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