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FA Cup | Third Round
Jan 13, 2025 at 7.30pm UK
The Den
D&

Millwall
3 - 0
Dag & Red

Ivanovic (30'), De Norre (70'), Bangura-Williams (85')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Rees (15')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Sheff Weds 2-2 Millwall
Saturday, January 4 at 3pm in Championship
Last Game: Forest Green 1-1 Dag & Red
Wednesday, January 8 at 7.45pm in National League

We said: Millwall 2-0 Dagenham & Redbridge

Although Dagenham have shown signs of improvement under their caretaker manager Young, we feel the gap between the Championship and the National League will show in this match. The visitors will give it a good go on Monday night, but we think Millwall get their first win under their new boss and book their place in the fourth round. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Millwall win with a probability of 55.74%. A draw had a probability of 24.2% and a win for Dagenham & Redbridge had a probability of 20.03%.

The most likely scoreline for a Millwall win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.73%) and 2-1 (9.61%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.48%), while for a Dagenham & Redbridge win it was 0-1 (6.86%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Millwall would win this match.

Result
MillwallDrawDagenham & Redbridge
55.74% (-1.045 -1.04) 24.24% (0.364 0.36) 20.03% (0.682 0.68)
Both teams to score 48.04% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
47.35% (-0.565 -0.56)52.64% (0.566 0.57)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
25.71% (-0.486 -0.49)74.29% (0.486 0.49)
Millwall Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.23% (-0.604 -0.6)18.77% (0.605 0.61)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
49.83% (-1.019 -1.02)50.17% (1.02 1.02)
Dagenham & Redbridge Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
59.14% (0.425 0.43)40.86% (-0.423 -0.42)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
22.57% (0.377 0.38)77.43% (-0.375 -0.38)
Score Analysis
    Millwall 55.73%
    Dagenham & Redbridge 20.03%
    Draw 24.23%
MillwallDrawDagenham & Redbridge
1-0 @ 12.82% (0.040000000000001 0.04)
2-0 @ 10.73% (-0.17 -0.17)
2-1 @ 9.61% (-0.045 -0.04)
3-0 @ 5.98% (-0.218 -0.22)
3-1 @ 5.36% (-0.131 -0.13)
4-0 @ 2.5% (-0.142 -0.14)
3-2 @ 2.4% (-0.03 -0.03)
4-1 @ 2.24% (-0.099 -0.1)
4-2 @ 1% (-0.032 -0.03)
Other @ 3.09%
Total : 55.73%
1-1 @ 11.48% (0.17 0.17)
0-0 @ 7.67% (0.17 0.17)
2-2 @ 4.3% (0.029000000000001 0.03)
Other @ 0.79%
Total : 24.23%
0-1 @ 6.86% (0.23 0.23)
1-2 @ 5.14% (0.133 0.13)
0-2 @ 3.07% (0.137 0.14)
1-3 @ 1.53% (0.057 0.06)
2-3 @ 1.28% (0.024 0.02)
0-3 @ 0.92% (0.051 0.05)
Other @ 1.22%
Total : 20.03%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Sheff Weds 2-2 Millwall
Saturday, January 4 at 3pm in Championship
Last Game: Millwall 0-1 Oxford Utd
Wednesday, January 1 at 1pm in Championship
Last Game: Coventry 0-0 Millwall
Sunday, December 29 at 3pm in Championship
Last Game: Norwich 2-1 Millwall
Thursday, December 26 at 3pm in Championship
Last Game: Millwall 1-0 Blackburn
Saturday, December 21 at 3pm in Championship
Last Game: Middlesbrough 1-0 Millwall
Saturday, December 14 at 3pm in Championship
Last Game: Forest Green 1-1 Dag & Red
Wednesday, January 8 at 7.45pm in National League
Last Game: Ebbsfleet 0-2 Dag & Red
Wednesday, January 1 at 3pm in National League
Last Game: Dag & Red 2-4 Braintree
Thursday, December 26 at 3pm in National League
Last Game: Wealdstone 3-0 Dag & Red
Saturday, December 21 at 3pm in National League
Last Game: Dag & Red 1-0 Rochdale
Saturday, December 14 at 3pm in National League
Last Game: AFC Wimbledon 1-2 Dag & Red
Saturday, November 30 at 7.15pm in FA Cup


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