SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Peterborough United win with a probability of 56.41%. A win for Notts County had a probability of 24.01% and a draw had a probability of 19.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Peterborough United win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (6.89%) and 2-0 (5.94%). The likeliest Notts County win was 1-2 (5.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.59%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Peterborough United would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Peterborough United | Draw | Notts County |
56.41% ( 0.11) | 19.58% ( -0.03) | 24.01% ( -0.09) |
| Both teams to score 69.99% ( -0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 73.52% ( 0.03) | 26.48% ( -0.03) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 53.17% ( 0.04) | 46.83% ( -0.04) |
| Peterborough United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 90.31% ( 0.03) | 9.69% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 67.69% ( 0.09) | 32.31% ( -0.09) |
| Notts County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.5% ( -0.04) | 22.5% ( 0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.94% ( -0.07) | 56.06% ( 0.06) |
| Score Analysis |
| Peterborough United | Draw | Notts County |
| 2-1 @ 8.86% ( 0) 3-1 @ 6.89% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 5.94% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 5.14% ( 0)1-0 @ 5.09% ( -0)3-0 @ 4.62% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 4.02% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 3% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 2.7% ( 0.01)5-1 @ 1.88% ( 0.01)4-3 @ 1.49% ( 0)5-2 @ 1.4% ( 0)5-0 @ 1.26% ( 0.01)Other @ 4.13% Total : 56.41% | 1-1 @ 7.59% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 6.61% ( -0.01)3-3 @ 2.56% ( -0)0-0 @ 2.18% ( -0)Other @ 0.64% Total : 19.58% | 1-2 @ 5.66% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 3.29% ( -0.01)0-1 @ 3.25% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 2.82% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 2.43% ( -0.01)2-4 @ 1.23% ( -0)0-3 @ 1.21% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 1.05% ( -0.01)3-4 @ 0.95% ( -0)Other @ 2.14% Total : 24.01% |
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