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SL
FA Cup | Third Round
Jan 12, 2025 at 4.30pm UK
St. Mary's Stadium
SL

Southampton
3 - 0
Swansea

Deen Sulemana (20'), Obling (35', 65')
Manning (90+2')
FT(HT: 2-0)

Grimes (60'), Allen (78')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Southampton 0-5 Brentford
Saturday, January 4 at 3pm in Premier League
Last Game: Swansea 1-1 West Brom
Saturday, January 4 at 12.30pm in Championship

We said: Southampton 1-2 Swansea City

This is a tricky game to call, as Southampton have struggled all season and it is difficult to see them winning anywhere at the moment. The nature of the Brentford result last weekend would have been a crushing blow to the new management team, and we think Swansea will pile on the misery here with a slight upset at St Mary's this weekend. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Swansea City win with a probability of 55%. A win for Southampton had a probability of 22.86% and a draw had a probability of 22.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Swansea City win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.77%) and 0-2 (8.43%). The likeliest Southampton win was 2-1 (5.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.21%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood.

Result
SouthamptonDrawSwansea City
22.86% (0.0090000000000003 0.01) 22.15%55% (-0.0069999999999979 -0.01)
Both teams to score 58.75% (0.010000000000005 0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
59.61% (0.0079999999999956 0.01)40.39% (-0.0050000000000026 -0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
37.23% (0.007000000000005 0.01)62.77% (-0.0039999999999978 -0)
Southampton Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
68.82% (0.012999999999991 0.01)31.18% (-0.009999999999998 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
32.49% (0.012999999999998 0.01)67.52% (-0.010000000000005 -0.01)
Swansea City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
85.37% (0.00099999999999056 0)14.63% (0.0019999999999989 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
57.25%42.76% (0.0050000000000026 0.01)
Score Analysis
    Southampton 22.86%
    Swansea City 55%
    Draw 22.14%
SouthamptonDrawSwansea City
2-1 @ 5.96% (0.0019999999999998 0)
1-0 @ 5.32%
2-0 @ 3.1% (0.00099999999999989 0)
3-1 @ 2.31% (0.0010000000000003 0)
3-2 @ 2.22% (0.00099999999999989 0)
3-0 @ 1.2% (0.00099999999999989 0)
Other @ 2.75%
Total : 22.86%
1-1 @ 10.21%
2-2 @ 5.72% (0.0010000000000003 0)
0-0 @ 4.56% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
3-3 @ 1.42%
Other @ 0.22%
Total : 22.14%
1-2 @ 9.82%
0-1 @ 8.77% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
0-2 @ 8.43% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
1-3 @ 6.29%
0-3 @ 5.4% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
2-3 @ 3.67% (0.00099999999999989 0)
1-4 @ 3.02%
0-4 @ 2.59% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
2-4 @ 1.76% (0.0010000000000001 0)
1-5 @ 1.16%
0-5 @ 1%
Other @ 3.09%
Total : 55%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Southampton 0-5 Brentford
Saturday, January 4 at 3pm in Premier League
Last Game: Crystal Palace 2-1 Southampton
Sunday, December 29 at 3pm in Premier League
Last Game: Southampton 0-1 West Ham
Thursday, December 26 at 3pm in Premier League
Last Game: Fulham 0-0 Southampton
Sunday, December 22 at 2pm in Premier League
Last Game: Southampton 1-2 Liverpool
Wednesday, December 18 at 8pm in EFL Cup
Last Game: Southampton 0-5 Spurs
Sunday, December 15 at 7pm in Premier League
Last Game: Swansea 1-1 West Brom
Saturday, January 4 at 12.30pm in Championship
Last Game: Portsmouth 4-0 Swansea
Wednesday, January 1 at 3pm in Championship
Last Game: Swansea 2-1 Luton
Sunday, December 29 at 3pm in Championship
Last Game: Swansea 3-0 QPR
Thursday, December 26 at 3pm in Championship
Last Game: Hull City 2-1 Swansea
Saturday, December 21 at 12.30pm in Championship
Last Game: Swansea 2-3 Sunderland
Saturday, December 14 at 3pm in Championship


Sports Mole provides in-depth previews and predictions for every match from the biggest leagues and competitions in world football.
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