Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aris Thessaloniki win with a probability of 36.75%. A win for AEK Athens had a probability of 34.73% and a draw had a probability of 28.5%.
The most likely scoreline for an Aris Thessaloniki win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.7%) and 2-0 (6.89%). The likeliest AEK Athens win was 0-1 (11.46%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.29%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Aris Thessaloniki would win this match.