Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nagoya Grampus win with a probability of 43.23%. A win for Sagan Tosu had a probability of 30.94% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Nagoya Grampus win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.95%) and 0-2 (7.5%). The likeliest Sagan Tosu win was 1-0 (8.42%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.27%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nagoya Grampus would win this match.

Result
Sagan Tosu	Draw	Nagoya Grampus
30.94% ( 1.43)	25.83% ( 0.11)	43.23% ( -1.53)

Both teams to score 53.45% (

0.4)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

49.42% (

0.18)

50.58% (

-0.18)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

27.5% (

0.16)

72.5% (

-0.16)

Sagan Tosu Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.66% (

1.1)

30.34% (

-1.1)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.47% (

1.29)

66.53% (

-1.29)

Nagoya Grampus Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.73% (

-0.65)

23.27% (

0.65)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

42.8% (

-0.95)

57.2% (

0.96)

Score Analysis

Sagan Tosu 30.94%

Nagoya Grampus 43.23%

Draw 25.82%

Sagan Tosu	Draw	Nagoya Grampus
1-0 @ 8.42% ( 0.19) 2-1 @ 7.32% ( 0.25) 2-0 @ 5.02% ( 0.26) 3-1 @ 2.91% ( 0.18) 3-2 @ 2.12% ( 0.09) 3-0 @ 2% ( 0.16) Other @ 3.15% Total : 30.94%	1-1 @ 12.27% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 7.06% ( -0.05) 2-2 @ 5.34% ( 0.08) 3-3 @ 1.03% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.12% Total : 25.82%	0-1 @ 10.29% ( -0.28) 1-2 @ 8.95% ( -0.14) 0-2 @ 7.5% ( -0.35) 1-3 @ 4.35% ( -0.15) 0-3 @ 3.65% ( -0.25) 2-3 @ 2.59% ( -0.01) 1-4 @ 1.59% ( -0.09) 0-4 @ 1.33% ( -0.12) 2-4 @ 0.95% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.03% Total : 43.23%