This has the potential to be a very difficult match for Real Madrid, and both Girona and Barcelona will be looking for a favour from Osasuna. It would not be a surprise to see a draw here, but we just have a feeling that Ancelotti's side will be able to navigate their way to another big three points in the title race.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 55.85%. A draw had a probability of 23.6% and a win for Osasuna had a probability of 20.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.18%) and 1-2 (9.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.2%), while for a Osasuna win it was 1-0 (6.42%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Real Madrid would win this match.
-0.27) 
0.5) 
