Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 38.32%. A win for Mansfield Town had a probability of 34.14% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.14%) and 2-0 (6.99%). The likeliest Mansfield Town win was 0-1 (10.41%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.01%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood.
-1.92) 
0.43) 
