Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Swindon Town win with a probability of 47.17%. A win for Crewe Alexandra had a probability of 27.6% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Swindon Town win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.32%) and 0-2 (8.26%). The likeliest Crewe Alexandra win was 1-0 (7.7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.98%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood.
-0.01) 
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