Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newport County win with a probability of 38.68%. A win for Harrogate Town had a probability of 33.89% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newport County win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.2%) and 0-2 (7.04%). The likeliest Harrogate Town win was 1-0 (10.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.98%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Newport County would win this match.
0.49) 
-0.59) 
