Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Northampton Town win with a probability of 41.79%. A win for Newport County had a probability of 29.47% and a draw had a probability of 28.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Northampton Town win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.27%) and 1-2 (8.13%). The likeliest Newport County win was 1-0 (10.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.22%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood.
-0.01) 
0.04) 
